The Senate election in 2002. The presidential election in 2004. The gubernatorial contest in 2005. The Senate election in 2006. Every year or two the Republicans trick the establishment media into believing that they will be competitive in New Jersey, only to flame out embarrassingly. And for a while they had folks going that John McCain would be able to make a run for it in the Garden State come November. Well, not so much.
Widespread opposition to the war in Iraq has helped give Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama a double-digit lead in New Jersey vs. Republican John McCain, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released today.The poll of 702 registered New Jersey voters found 49 percent favored Obama, 33 percent favored McCain, 3 percent plan to vote for someone else and the rest were undecided.
At present, the Pollster.com trend estimate, Barack Obama leads McCain in New Jersey by a 12.5 percent margin. Real Clear Politics places the spread at 10.3 percentage points. The folks who wrote up the poll underscore the finding that Obama is only leading among Clinton supporters by a 64 percent to 18 percent margin, but reading these numbers, it seems that the anemic 33 percent showing from McCain -- a full 13 points behind George W. Bush's showing in the state in 2004 -- stands out a bit more prominently than the relatively low defection rate within the Democratic ranks (though perhaps that's just my vantage). Although there may be an upside to these numbers for McCain: at least he might not feel obligated to dump a few million dollars in New Jersey because he's already so far behind...
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