MyDD :: The downfall of SurveyUSA

The downfall of SurveyUSA

by Blazers Edge, Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:02:49 PM EST

Alright, time for some new polls from Indiana and New Mexico.

Obama is up one in Indiana. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=d62471d9-b9f8-4274-8312-16c100 6a5764

and up three in New Mexico.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=31e69724-cf94-4dbc-b14b-961f53 d67e39

The biggest issue that I have with SurveyUSA's recent polling is the outrageous gender gap that it has been reporting. This gap is shown in the New Mexico polling where Obama is up 62-32 on McCain among women but trailing among men 60-36. Is there really a thirty point gender gap between McCain and Obama?

Given how strongly that Obama is performing among Hispanics in this poll (63-34), one could derive that McCain is crushing Obama by over forty points among white males. I don't think there's any question Obama is getting tooled among white males but by forty + points? The SurveyUSA results don't look too credible in my opinion.

Not too much to complain about because at least Obama is ahead. The Indiana results show a normal gender gap but show McCain ahead in Indianapolis. That doesn't seem right to me given what we saw in the primaries. Indiana certainly appears to be a swing state now.

Tags: polls, Obama, McCain (all tags)

Permalink :: 5 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The downfall of SurveyUSA (none / 0)

That poll was taken Saturday through Monday morning. Weekend polling has always been suspect in mind. A SUSA MN poll has McCain and Obama tied among African Americans and youth!

by Homebrewer on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:06:38 PM EST

Re: The downfall of SurveyUSA (none / 0)

You should have seen the gender gap between McCain and Obama in Oregon; it is also thirty points.

Plouffe has claimed that Obama is "poised to win [a] historic level of support [from women]." While I think that's accurate, he has to make sure that the white male vote doesn't end up going to McCain by more than thirty points or else we'll be breathing hard on election night.

by Blazers Edge on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The downfall of SurveyUSA (none / 0)

Survey USA doesn't normalize for demographics. Other pollsters do. Sometimes this makes SUSA more accurate, other times it serves up huge outliers (as they did back in 2006 and 2004, everyone has such short memories, SUSA used to be terrible).

by Skaje on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:26:39 PM EST

Re: The downfall of SurveyUSA (none / 0)

I'm sure they had their share of outliers, but SUSA was very good in 2004 & 2006

by verbatim on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 03:42:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The downfall of SurveyUSA (2.00 / 0)

Among white male voters Bush beat Kerry by 25 points. By my calculations (assuming no gender split within the Latino vote) this poll shows McCain beating Obama among white male voters by 35 points. Not impossible, though my hunch is this poll is skewing older. What am I expecting in November? 25 points.

by IncognitoErgoSum on Tue Jun 24, 2008 at 04:00:58 PM EST

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