MyDD :: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country

New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country

by Todd Beeton, Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 03:53:48 PM EST

Yesterday, Josh ably debunked several electoral myths about Barack Obama and I'd like to add one to the pile: the idea that New Hampshire LOVES them some John McCain. Sure, McCain has been polling strongly against Obama in the state but the honeymoon is over. From the beginning of this process I've been operating under the assumption that not only would our nominee hold all Kerry states, but he or she would exceed Kerry's margins and put other states in play; now that we have a nominee, the latest polling out of New Hampshire -- where Kerry won by just 1% in 2004 -- is bearing this out.

Candidate	Rasmussen 6/18 (5/21, 4/30)	ARG 6/13-17	Pollster
Obama	50 (48, 41)	51	50
McCain	39 (43, 51)	39	38

The Clinton endorsement seems to have played a major role in Obama's improvement over last month in the Rasmussen poll.

Obama's insignificant two-point lead among women voters last month has bounced to a sixteen-point lead this month. His lead among male voters is nearly the same; he now leads McCain by seven percentage points among men, little changed from eight points last month.

But perhaps the sweetest statistic from the Rasmussen analysis is this:

Among voters not affiliated with either major political party, Obama leads McCain 50% to 35%.

The media is still in love with the idea that McCain has some special magical appeal among independents without acknowledging the fact that since 2000, McCain has sold out much of his independence and has become just another Republican tool, a very dangerous place to be if you're trying to appeal to independents, who overwhelmingly voted Democratic in 2006.

So, by all means, Senator McCain, compete in New Hampshire, compete in New Jersey and spend time and money in Pennsylvania. Please. The media would love you to have a shot in these states but you and I know it's a pipe dream. Instead, my recommendation (not that you asked) would be to focus on holding the Bush 2004 map together; that will be enough of a challenge.

Tags: 2008 presidential election, john mccain, barack obama, new hampshire (all tags)

Permalink :: 12 Comments :: Post a Comment

NH will be a good one (none / 0)

for Obama.

by parahammer on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 03:56:22 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

And the good news just keeps on coming:-))

End Conservatism

by nintendofanboy on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 03:59:19 PM EST

Its amazing, how in 1988 (none / 0)

this state went for the President's father 62.4-36.3. Then it proceeded to go Clinton twice and John Kerry. Obama winning this state in November is a very good omen. The state with the exception of 2004 and 1976 is a bellwether since 1964.

by Lakrosse on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 04:09:16 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

As a Granite Stater I have never bought into NH is McCain Country.

Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.

by jsfox on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 04:26:21 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

Nate at FiveThirtyEight has said that New Hampshire is the ultimate swing state, meaning that it swings faster and harder than any other. If this is a sign of things to come (i.e. people are coming to terms with what McCain says he wants to do), this is very good indeed.

If you're being chased by an angry bull and then you notice you're also being chased by a swarm of bees, it doesn't really change things. Just keep on running.

by vcalzone on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 04:31:42 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No (none / 0)

I don't think it's wise to dismiss McCain's chances in New Hampshire. I also don't think its wise to get too pleased here. This is encouraging data, but we have to assume that the numbers are not that favorable.

Patience, grasshoppers.

by Reaper0Bot0 on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 04:31:46 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

And, Newsweek's latest national poll has Obama up by 15. Yes, 15.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

by DPW on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 04:42:34 PM EST

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

National liberal/Democratic trend predicts NH to have a 55/45 split this year.

A swing state no more.

by killjoy on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 05:10:41 PM EST

Forbidden discussion or not? (none / 0)

I find it interesting that it seems ok to quote things like this:

The Clinton endorsement seems to have played a major role in Obama's improvement over last month in the Rasmussen poll.

Obama's insignificant two-point lead among women voters last month has bounced to a sixteen-point lead this month. His lead among male voters is nearly the same; he now leads McCain by seven percentage points among men, little changed from eight points last month.

But, it is considered forbidden to say things like:

Since Clinton conceded to rival Obama in the Democratic race on June 7, there has been endless speculation about the intentions of her disappointed female supporters.

Would they refuse to support Obama? Not vote in November's presidential election? Or worse, throw their support to Republican McCain?

Clinton supporters are "NOT JUST WOMEN!" according to many Clinton supporters, unless Obama is increasing a lead somewhere among women voters (because of Clinton's endorsement). It's "sexist" to say "disappointed female supporters", but it's not sexist to say that Obama's increase in women voters in NH is because Clinton endorsed him?

Or, am I the only one who sees the deep irony in this?

by Sully Fick on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 05:13:56 PM EST

Re: Forbidden discussion or not? (none / 0)

I would say that it is both a little sexist but mostly just pundits and writers looking for pigeon hole stats. For that matter, what happened to the soccer Mom's and Nascar Dad's in the "swing" vote? Now it is the Blue Collar Worker and the disaffected White Woman vote. What next?

Yes, there is still lingering sexism (and racism, and a lot of other -isms) in this country, but thanks to Obama and Clinton, those issues are being dealt with in a more prefessionally public way. My wife is a Minister...I know sexism exists in some very cruel and harsh ways...but it is also ebbing away. And I agree it is HARD not to overreact to every sexist comment, possibly sexist comment, nice compliments, and even the lack of compliments.

Take South Dakota for instance...I lived there for 6 years and I was not one bit surprised that Hillary won it. The Dems in SD are not in any way anti-Obama, but there are a LOT of frustrated Dem women in SD who voted for what they really wanted to see...a woman for President. Women in SD have a very strong opinion and Dem are becoming emboldend to actually voice it. And these are people who I think looked askance at the Mondale/Feraro ticket, so there is progress in the darndest places. It will probably stay Red as West River is VERY conservative, but I am encouraged.

by Hammer1001 on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 06:10:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Hampshire No Longer McCain Country (none / 0)

Interesting that Obama's bounce has been most notable in states that he lost. In fact, his greatest polling improvement has been in West Virginia and Kentucky, two states he got hammered in and barely even campaigned in.

by Skaje on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 06:27:51 PM EST

I'd be very surprised if McCain had a chance there.

But I hope he buys ads in the expensive Boston market to compete in NH!

John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."

by desmoinesdem on Fri Jun 20, 2008 at 08:14:18 PM EST

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