Oh btw, sorry for the short diary but what else is there to say.....

Damn, beat me to it!

This is fantastic news.  We absolutely should take heart, and hope.  Savor the flavor for a moment, gang.

Now, let's go kick some ass.  As has often been said, run like we're ten points down.  For all we really know, we are...

This is great news.  Looks like people don't want a Bush third term.

I don't believe we'll carry Florida in the fall for a minute unless something major changes... but McCain's "The Constitution Sucks" initiative, combined with his "Brown Beaches and Dead Sea Life" project might just do it if he keeps at them.

Love the news. But really love that it's Quinnipiac.  I consider them a good poll. So while its a long way to November I'm thinking "McGoverns Revenge". Has a ring to it...

This is probably because the Obama campaign is now focused on the economy.

Wow! Up 12 points in PA!  Sometimes I don't give my state enough credit, way to go guys.  I'd like to see a county-by-county breakdown of those results.  I mean, I know that Allegheny and Philadelphia countys support Obama but how is he doing in the rural counties and smaller cities?  It would make me very happy to so PA prove Carville wrong and have the middle of the state come out for Obama.

To the diarist; you should really have gone into more detail in your diary. Graphs, charts, dialogs etc, would have been more useful.

Turn Florida blue.

Seriously, this is great news. Quinnipiac is very strong in Florida and Pennsylvania. I'm not sure I trust them on Ohio. Their strengths are: CT, NJ, PA and FL.

I thought the primary results proved they were way beyond reach for him . . .

So we can add CO, VA, IA and NM as well as the three big swing states? Who'd've thunk it?

Here's a detailed breakdown from Marc Ambinder:

Quinnipiac's out with surveys of Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania this morning showing Obama gains in each state as compared to the last time Q-PAC polled. The sample sizes are huge -- more than 1,400 likely votes in each state, although I'm a little wary of likely voter samples at this stage. No matter:

Florida: Obama: 47, McCain 43
Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42
Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40

The crosstabs: Obama's leading among white voters in PA, and his multi-ethnic coalition puts him over the top elsewhere. He leads by double digits about women everywhere; men are split evenly. The economy is the major issue in each state; President Bush's approval rating is highest (27%) in Florida.

Obama's getting the votes of 13% of '04 Bush voters in Florida and Ohio, and 19% in Pennsylvania. McCain gets the support of 24% of Clinton voters in PA and roughly equivalent percentages in OH and FL. So, from O's perspective, maybe it doesn't really matter that a quarter of Clinton Democrats turned Red.

Some other key findings after the jump.

More QPAC findings:

   By almost 2 - 1 margins in each state, voters say going to war in Iraq was wrong. But they split between Obama's plan to withdraw U.S. troops under a fixed timetable and McCain's plan to keep troops there until the situation stabilizes and then withdraw without a set schedule.

   Florida

   Florida women likely voters back Obama 50 - 40 percent, while men go 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama. White voters back McCain 50 - 40 percent while black voters back Obama 95 - 4 percent. Obama leads 57 -35 percent with voters 18 to 34 years old; he splits 48 - 46 percent with McCain among voters 35 to 54, and 44 - 46 percent with voters over 55.

   Ohio

   Obama leads 51 - 39 percent among Ohio women likely voters, while men go 46 percent for McCain and 45 percent for Obama. White voters also are narrowly divided with 47 percent for McCain and 44 percent for Obama, but Obama commands black voters 90 - 6 percent. The Democrat also leads 58 - 36 percent among voters 18 to 34 and 49 - 42 percent among voters 35 to 54, while McCain has the 47 - 43 percent edge among voters over 55.

   Pennsylvania

   Obama tops McCain 57 - 34 percent with women as men go 47 percent for McCain to 45 percent for Obama. Obama leads 61 - 33 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old, 51 - 41 percent among voters 35 to 54 and 48 - 43 percent with voters over 55. The Democrat inches ahead 47 - 44 percent among white voters and leads among black voters 95 - 1 percent.

   Obama gets a 54 - 25 percent favorability, to 43 - 33 percent for McCain.

http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/cgi- bin/mt/mt-tb.cgi/22210

One key dynamic this year is that so many people have become Democrats and there are way fewer Republicans. This is attributable to the crappy job the president and his party have done.

As a result, Obama can get fewer Democrats than McCain gets Republicans and he is still leading, including in key states.

I'm surprised by Florida, I have to say, given that it's the oldest state in the country. But Obama is doing ok with their older voters, barely behind McCain.  And, now with McCain's policy on off-shore drilling, this really gives Obama a good shot at the state. If Obama can consolidate the elderly Jewish vote in FL, this will also help him a lot.  Wexler is loved in south Florida and he supported Obama from the start. And I know that population group pretty well -- and I think that most will come home to the Democratic party.

Means that Obama can pick someone more in line with the agenda he wants in DC rather than getting him elected.  He won't be constrained by what state they can bring or other electoral nicities.  And it doesn't have to be a military man (although he can choose one if he wants to).

Great Days are ahead

We musn't get complacent. The Republican suprises in Sept/Oct have yet to kick in.

1) It's interesting that independents don't want Clinton for VP but Democrats do. There are so many good potential VP picks out there, I'm sure Obama can find one that is appealing to both Democrats and Independents.

2) I reject the notion that national polls aren't showing a bounce. Obama's had a lead of 3-5 points in most national polls since the end of the primaries and he was roughly tied, or even a couple points behind in most of the national polls prior to that. That's a bounce.

It seems that a big part of the bounce has been concentrated in strong Clinton states, which in the case of OH, FL and PA is a very, very good thing.

Wow! This is fantastic news! I don't know who would be more upset by this though, the GOP or the PUMAs.

Color me pessimistic, but there's a little voice in my head that says: "this is the highest he will poll this election; it's all down hill from here."  My guess is, we will have to fight like hell to win these states, early polling notwithstanding.  

Happy to be wrong...

How did Quinnipiac do in their primary predictions?

Obama's polls are overstated as they were in Ca where they showed him up and he ended up getting blown out. People are affraid of being thought of as racists so they lie to the pollsters. It's already happended in a few contests this year.

McCain will pick a much younger, and probably female, VP. The Republicans will be running ads showing the race-bating that went on in the campaign in an attempt to win McCain some Hillary supporters.

The campaign is going to get very ugly.

just the other day I was thinking Florida was pretty much a lost cause, and the path to victory went through Ohio and Iowa, then we get this doozy of a poll.  Up 4 in Florida?  Holy crap!  Pennsylvania a blowout?  Wow.

Will McCain even hit 200 electoral votes?