McCain May Lose His Home District (and Arizona?)

Hi folks!

Dawn Teo posted this article today on Huffington Post.

McCain Up A Mere Five Points In Home District

In Arizona, in his home district, Sen. John McCain barely leads Sen. Barack Obama, according to a recent poll. A Democratic candidate for the McCain family's 3rd Congressional District, Bob Lord, commissioned the poll. Published June 5, it reports McCain drawing 48 percent and Obama 43 percent.

Yep, you got it right!  John McCain is so popular that he is barely hanging on to his own home town!

Ah!  Nothing like a good corruption scandal to show the Home Town Folks how serious you are about Change You Can Have Moderate Faith In!

More below the fold.

"Hey John, how ya' doin' big guy?

"We got this poll reflecting the strong local support you can expect to get from your fellow local Republican politicians back in Arizona.  You remember the place, right? I know we'll get our first campaign office opened up there before long and we can really get rocking.  Let's see what we got here to work with."

According to the poll, which was conducted by the Washington, D.C. firm Bennett, Petts & Normington, an explanation for McCain's slim district lead is the impact of the corruption scandal presently plaguing Republican Rep. John Shadegg,

"John, let me take that golf club from you.  Buck up, it could be worse.  Have a seat, close your eyes and think about little bunnies hopping merrily across a sunlit glade.  Isn't that nice?  That's right, put your head back and let me look into this.  Let's find the bright side.

"Hey!  At least it isn't an election scandal.  Whew!  Thank god, we'd hate to have all those local voters thinking about a corrupt local Republican fiddling with election finances or something as they go to the polls in November.  That would be awful!  This isn't as bad as it looks..."

who is accused of skirting election finance laws.

"D'oh!!

"OK, OK.  You're getting flushed, just lean back again.  No, I'll just hang onto this club for now.  This guy is probably just some newbie who won't draw a lot of attention to himself..."

Shadegg enjoys 75 percent name recognition, but only 31 percent of respondents said they will vote for Shadegg in the upcoming election.

"Wait!  Wait! This is Arizona!  None of this will matter in a state where Republicans hold the strong ground anyway.  Just calm down, John!  It's going to be O. K.!!

"Here, just breathe deeply into this paper bag and put this in the context of the historicaly strong position Republicans have in your state.  You're going to wipe the floor with this unknown Democratic upstart!  Not a thing to worry about. Not. A. Thing, Johnny boy!"

McCain only enjoys an 11-point lead over Obama in the most recent statewide poll. Obama, meantime, is gaining in popularity throughout the West, leading analysts to suggest Democrats will do very well there in state and congressional races, riding Obama's coattails in the fall.

"Gimme that bag."

Well, at least Senator McCain will have all that neat golf stuff left over after the general election.  He can take some time off, relax, knock some balls around the greens.

But I don't suggest Representative Shadegg join him on the links.  

Late Breaking: McCain Calls Arizona a Swing State!!

More from Dawn.

The McCain campaign's election strategy PowerPoint reveals that McCain and his advisers have lumped Arizona among what it is considering swing states!

McCain Swing Staes

-chris


Poll
Is Arizona a Swing State
Who am I to argue with John McCain?
If McCain says so, it must be wrong
If it's Red, it's a Swing State

Votes: 15
Results : Vote Link : Polls

Display:


Tips for John's Golf Holiday (2.00 / 1)


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:14:52 PM EST

Re: Tips for John's Golf Holiday (2.00 / 1)

If it's Red it is a swing state indeed....

The Republicans have had to steal (literally) the past two Presidential elections.  I don't even think THAT will work for them this year....


Like the nominee, don't like the nominee... Our nominee is still better than John McCain...
by JenKinFLA on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:44:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They really are building a bridge to the (none / 0)

19th Century.

The party and the nominee just don't get the Intertoobs under the best of circumstances.  Other than being scared shitless, they don't seem to get the fact that all sorts of things have shifted in the past four years.

I know that not everything changes quickly, but so many of these contests are matters of a relatively small percentage differences that it will not shock me to see a lot of unexpected things shift.


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain May Lose His Home District (2.00 / 2)


by animated on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:42:55 PM EST

What the hell? (2.00 / 1)

West Virginia and Kentucky as Swing States?

John McCain has lost his bearings.


Student Guy=JoeMentum. No really Student Guy=JoeMentum, after all JoeMentum was an embarrassment so is Student Guy. This sig is FAIL!!
by Student Guy on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:49:42 PM EST

Re: What the hell? (none / 0)

John McCain has lost his bearings.

I know, ain't it great!


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:53:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the hell? (none / 0)

From what I've read elsewhere he prepared that map while Clinton was still in the race.

I call BS on Tennessee too; unfortunately, Obama will likely do worse in it than Kerry did, as conservatives are moving into it from other states.


by BlueEngineerInOhio on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:05:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain May Lose His Home District (and Arizona (none / 0)

Remember he couldn't crack 50% in the primary thanks to Romney.  The Rs in his state are getting tired of him.  They know he's no maverick anymore.


by skywaker9 on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:56:09 PM EST

Re: McCain May Lose His Home District (and Arizona (none / 0)

He's been in Congress so long, effectively, his home district, like Gore's before him, is Columbia.


by Khun David on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 12:04:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain May Lose His Home District (and Arizona (2.00 / 1)

What will be fascinating will be to see is:

(1) If the unity bounce holds

(2) What effect the bounce will have on individual state polls.

If Obama got +5-7 in most states and was able to maintain that lead, that would be quite significant.
But let's see where we are in a few weeks.


by animated on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:59:12 PM EST

If McCain wasn't the nominee (2.00 / 1)

Arizona would absolutely be a swing state.

Well...maybe Romney would keep it dark red.

Anyway, I have a friend of mine who lives in Arizona, a Republican to bat, and he's not sure who he's voting for but he said he wouldn't be shocked in McCain struggles or loses Arizona.

People don't like him there.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 09:59:52 PM EST

Re: McCain May Lose His Home (2.00 / 1)

HOnestly I thought Arizona was super conservative and republican; so I dont get my hopes to high 'bout it being a swing state. but we can all dream big.


"Rankles and Rush Limbaugh, ruining the chaos brand since 2008."
by alyssa chaos on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:21:56 PM EST

Surprise! (2.00 / 1)

It's really not...it's Libertarian and changing. Don't forget, the Governor and AG are Democrats and Democrats picked up two House seats in 2006.

Bill Clinton carried Arizona.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:27:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Surprise! (none / 0)

good points.

[I always get that impression of them though. the whole conservative vibe.]


"Rankles and Rush Limbaugh, ruining the chaos brand since 2008."
by alyssa chaos on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:33:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll be in McCain's home town in a few weeks (none / 0)

Lovely Sedona. My family is planning a road trip from Tennessee to Utah and we're camping out near Slide Rock State Park. McCain is from Sedona, which is actually a very liberal and artsy town. But the district is much more conservative than Sedona.


by elrod on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:41:20 PM EST

His main residence (none / 0)

is in central Phoenix.

The compound is a getaway from the heat.


by Coldblue on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:47:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

McCain won't lose AZ (none / 0)

Anyone who thinks otherwise is foolish.

Arizona will go to McCain, Obama knows it and is smart not to waste too many resources in the state.


by Coldblue on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:41:55 PM EST

Re: McCain won't lose AZ (none / 0)

He'll win it in the end, but a 5 point lead in his district? That's rather shameful.


by animated on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:44:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain won't lose AZ (none / 0)

Bill Clinton carried Arizona.

I have seen this a few times and assume it is accurate.  If it is, why would it be certain that it won't happen again?


"Because after an eight-year hiatus it is vital to have a president who leads the country instead of lassoing, roping and branding it." Shaun Appleby
by chrisblask on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The hot topic (none / 0)

in AZ is illegal immigration.

McCain is on the wrong side of the paranoid on the issue.


by Coldblue on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:49:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Sure (none / 0)

but perhaps not nearly as much as Obama will win Illinois.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It is winner take all (none / 0)

in the GE, so margin of victory doesn't really matter, does it?


by Coldblue on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 10:51:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No (none / 0)

but it's the priciple. the symbolism. I'm assuming he's winning the electoral vote anyway. A five point win in Arizona for McCain would be embarassing and would probably mean he's lost the election anyway.

Obama will got over 60% in Illinois easily.


The American people; they were for the war before they were against it.
by nrafter530 on Wed Jun 11, 2008 at 12:56:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: McCain May Lose His Home District (and Arizona (2.00 / 2)

Not all of Arizona is Republican. I live in liberal Flagstaff and will be trying to get voters registered all year. Now that being said, I don't think Obama will win here. I think the point is to get McCain to spend time and money campaigning here instead of neighboring Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico. If McCain was not the candidate I think we would be able to seriously put Arizona in play.  With McCain, we are still going to make him earn it and we lay the groundwork for Obama to stomp Romney in 2012.


by vibber419 on Tue Jun 10, 2008 at 11:07:29 PM EST


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